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Betfair’s biggest ever trading market



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This week we saw Betfair’s biggest ever individual trading market.

Previous Political markets on Betfair have hit some big numbers, with the previous record being the UK’s Referendum on the EU (Brexit).

In this video I discuss this interesting market and my approach to trading it.

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11 responses to “Betfair’s biggest ever trading market”

  1. I have traded that market. It was crazy! A good example when the market was wrong!

  2. Smug Punter says:

    Hi Peter, Just would like to know if there is a setting in bet angel to trade out of a Dutch bet?

  3. terminateDMC says:

    its a pity we cant bet on the amount of lies that politicians tell, we would all cash in on betting against their promises materialising, I would have made a fortune on Obama !

  4. i Layd hillary at 1.20 i ran my owen polls on twitter and every poll that i did said trump would win.

  5. rfkimble says:

    what did you use for information on the night peter? i had cnn on tv and nytimes website but still seemed to be behind the news which made the big swings

  6. wow. till the morning of election i still hesitated to lay money on trump. even it's 5 to 1 odds for trump

  7. 1faustus says:

    Now I see why Trump won: 20 million placed a bet at good odds and then ran down to the polling station.

    Interesting video. For my tuppence worth: Political markets seem to have a higher degree of bets and odds generated more by emotion than logic with all the attendant opportunity for traders. Ken Clarke briefly made it to favourite against Davids Cameron and Davis despite not having declared that he would even stand. A few years ago there were stories that US campaigns were trying to drive odds as a way of generating news momentum. Sounds a very expensive way of creating the impression of support so the interest is that the rumour began, rather than its likelihood. UK markets were much smaller, especially back then, but this emotional commitment helps create much bigger (and less rational) swings I think.

    Some sports markets see the same phenomenon. The 2006 World Cup had England third favourite for several weeks, second favourite for a few days and from memory, actual favourite for a couple of hours. I stood in the pub watching the Jamaica game and my colleagues and wondered if I was the only sane man left in England.

    So when Jeremy Corbyn was driven down despite not being able to garner the necessary votes from MPs to even get on the ballot paper, I knew I was on to a good thing. Interestingly, it's grass roots knowledge than can be generating momentum that is incomprehensible to those at the top until it is too late. Clinton started the nomination process in 2008 with no serious rivals. There was a community organiser with some oratorical skills and they patronised him and mooted giving him a job in her team if he proved popular . Once again the pollsters have got it hugely wrong while (some) gamblers and traders have had a whale of a time. In politics, the long odds are not as long as you imagine and are worth backing high. Trading the news feed comes into play once they have reached the level of a serious candidate and there are some serious positions that have to be covered.

  8. martin4578 says:

    Once again useless information too late and a load of towdel!!

  9. Many sports traders will enjoy the Trump victory as they tend to be rightward leaning.

  10. Great video Peter. I'm a bit too impatient for long(ish) term markets. I'll probably enter more of them when I'm a bit more knowledgable about trading.

    PS. Any promotions on your software coming up soon? About to renew my sub 😛

  11. J C says:

    The non-biased polls leading up the election suggested it was 50:50 ("Trump takes 1% lead" etc.) yet the Betfair odds were like 1.2-1.3 Clinton vs 5-6 Trump. I was fairly confident that on the night they counted the electorals that both prices would approach ~2.0. Sure enough they did. Within the final few hours I'd bagged £900 profit and although Trump was favourite to win at this point (only 8 states left with Clinton needing to win nearly all of them), I layed Trump for a chance of £5-6000 had Hillary had won. Thought it was a worth a shot.. I wish I had committed more though. These opportunities don't come around often and I could've made some serious money if I'd trusted my instincts!

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